Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 23.234831 25.273318 27.469889 30.023156 32.922554 36.128170 39.961864
2026-02-01 20.037087 22.846796 26.086409 30.139968 35.136591 41.175951 49.157047
2026-02-08 17.756850 20.974480 24.881035 30.062752 36.897065 45.817952 58.728399
2026-02-15 16.059090 19.501012 23.854925 29.912504 38.372824 50.189248 68.786465
2026-02-22 14.733237 18.297669 22.961310 29.716255 39.630663 54.344483 79.396289
2026-03-01 13.723603 17.376006 22.296750 29.682804 41.023499 58.838937 91.593923
2026-03-08 12.888387 16.593995 21.715984 29.652348 42.349333 63.388709 105.087312
2026-03-15 12.452118 16.312408 21.792802 30.576096 45.269816 71.115982 127.038060
2026-03-22 11.737710 15.569635 21.116411 30.230302 45.998481 75.046448 142.507337
2026-03-29 11.182683 15.012338 20.660877 30.171289 47.186532 80.046980 162.318762
2026-04-05 10.762964 14.621224 20.419268 30.424660 48.952183 86.555490 188.791215
2026-04-12 10.282312 14.103783 19.935086 30.205296 49.782726 91.257280 212.693005
2026-04-19 9.844516 13.636711 19.514708 30.088180 50.867627 96.966084 243.631388
2026-04-26 9.460967 13.231632 19.166680 30.068660 52.161540 103.560988 282.424147
2026-05-03 9.088735 12.821715 18.780022 29.937320 53.204468 109.852332 325.484871
2026-05-10 8.740633 12.429593 18.394259 29.766331 54.134831 116.140984 374.746168
2026-05-17 8.415113 12.055381 18.012352 29.562841 54.960690 122.414667 431.167443
2026-05-24 8.142135 11.751708 17.730821 29.526195 56.166871 130.215079 506.290515
2026-05-31 7.889887 11.468561 17.465667 29.494589 57.381465 138.491628 598.149981
2026-06-07 7.796819 11.444653 17.656879 30.410826 61.099775 156.502682 799.212520
2026-06-14 7.527866 11.109849 17.264792 30.067419 61.533959 163.241265 927.247918
2026-06-21 7.315676 10.861943 17.016744 30.008761 62.721093 173.356653 1124.367232
2026-06-28 7.157626 10.699432 16.916173 30.260178 64.806320 188.069252 1446.811130